โดยปกติผมก็อ่านแต่ข่าว กับบทวิเคราะห์ โดยที่ไม่ได้สนใจโฆษณาเท่าไรนัก แต่เมื่อได้อ่านฉบับ February 20 - February 26, 2012 ผมสนใจโฆษณาชิ้นหนึ่งขึ้นมาทันทีครับ เพราะนี้ไม่ใช่โฆษณาธรรมดาๆ แต่มันคือบทสัมภาษณ์ผ่านBloomberg Television โดยบุคคลที่ถูกสัมภาษณ์ คือ
LISA SHALETT - CIO for Merrill Lynch, Global Wealth Management
MICHAEL HARTNETT- Chief Global Equity Strategist, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
ETHAN HARRIS - Co-Head of Global Economics Research, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
ซึ่งเนื้อหาในบทสัมภาษณ์ ก็คงไม่พ้น เศรษฐกิจ และการลงทุน ผู้อ่านSETTALKหลายๆท่านอาจจะสนใจ ผมเลยเลือกเฉพาะส่วนที่ผมคิดว่าสำคัญกับผู้อ่านมาโพสไว้เป็นบทความละกันครับ
PROSPECTS FOR GROWTH IN 2012
Last year was filled with unpredictable events that shaped the markets. Should we expect more of the same in the year ahead?
The following is based on the Merrill Lynch Outlook 2012 Webcast. It is not intended to reflect a literal transcription of the Webcast or any portion thereof. To view the actual discussion, please visit ml.com/outlook.
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There's no shortage in the supply of uncertainty these days. Geopolitical and economic volatility are, naturally, mirrored in market volatility, leaving nervous investors to play a seemingly endless waiting game. Time, however, waits for no investor. While prudence is important, a fear-only approach can result in lost opportunities to tap into the most promising sources of growth and yield.
With global economic questions unlikely to be quickly resolved and market turbulence expected to persist in 2012, we checked with a few top economists and strategists from Merrill Lynch to help bring into clear focus the best way forward for investors. They are Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer of Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management and, from BofA Merill Lynch Global Reasearch, Ethan Harris, Co-Head of Global Economics Research, and Michael Hartnett, Chief Global Equity Strategist.
What is the appropriate view on the European banking system?
Lisa Shalett: The U.S. banking system today is roughly leveraged 15 to 1. Many large European banks are still levered 30 to 1. Not only is that a lot of leverage by any standard, for many investors 30 to 1 has an eerie echo. It's the number that tipped Lehman Brother over. What the ECB has been doing recently, in providing liquidity-oriented programs, is aimed specifically at helping the banks and the inter-banking system. But it doesn't solve the fundamental issue, namely that European banks need to recapitalize.
Consumer confidence dipped to a low in 2011. How are investors feeling now, and what will make them confident enough to return to investing?
Shalett: There's consumer confidence, which is part and parcel about jobs, and then there's investor confidence, which is much more nuanced - it's about clarity, certainty, visibility, the sense that volatility will drift down, the ability to understand what's happening with taxes and interest rates. On that score, things remained extraordinarily depressed. Most folks are in a wealth-preservation, pure capital-return mindset. The amount of cash on the sidelines is well above average, often out of pure fear.
Does that make this market one for long-term investors, not short-term traders?
Shalett: Our perspective is that you should always be a long-term investor. But when you're in a structually more volatile market like this one, rebalancing around strategic asset allocations becomes very important - because high volatility increases the likelihood that the markets will skew your portfolio. If you've historically rebalanced annually, when volatility is three times normal you may want to rebalance three times a year. Shift volatility from an enemy to something you exploit to your advantage.
The best analogy is world-class open-water swimmers, who make the waves, wind and current work for them, not against them. Individual investors, working with their advisors, would do well to have an eye toward rebalacing intelligently and opportunistically when they encounter big drift. This has nothing to do with market timing, which is dangerous at any time, but particularly during volatile periods, when price swings - and potential losses - are amplified.
What portfolio adjustments should investors be considering?
Shalett: This looks like a year for tilting toward bonds and away from stocks. We suggest a diversified, truly global fixed-income position for investors in 2012. We believe central banks around the world will aggressively cut rates to try to get their economies going again. As rates go down, we would expect to see a rise in prices of global bonds, which could produce a significant lift in the total return of holdings. At the same time, economic growth is likely to remain slow, suppressing gains for stocks. Taken together, it looks like a beneficial environment for bonds.
What is the single most important thing that you feel will part the clouds and get the markets moving again?
Hartnett: If you want the clouds to part, you have to believe that the news from the real estate and the banking sector will improve. Then, and only then, you would see a great rotation out of emerging into developed, out of growth into value, out of tech into banks and out of bonds into equities.
Harris: Unfortunately, everything cycles back to Europe, something we'd all like to stop talking about. If Europe can work through the next couple of months and make the hard decisions, we can change the channel - turn off Europe and turn on corporate balance sheets and so on, and it will be much better year.
Shalett: I'm looking at the central banks. Fundamentally, there is the potential to have a major reflationary cycle where you've [gotten] synchronous central-bank easing, as we get into the second half of the year. There is huge amount of cash on the sidelines. You get this wall of liquidity that easily could take markets up double digits. We're watching central-bank actions very carefully.
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จากทั้งหมด12คำถาม ผมดึงมา5คำถาม ท่านที่สนใจอ่านเพิ่มเติมสามารถซื้อ BloombergBusinessweek ได้ที่ร้านขายหนังสือภาษาอังกฤษทั่วไป ซึ่งเขามักจะขายของสัปดาห์ก่อนหน้าประกอบกับสัปดาห์ปัจจุบัน ซึ่งหมายความว่า ตอนนี้ฉบับ February 20 - February 26, 2012 ก็น่าจะยังมีขายอยู่
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